After finally making it out of the first round of the playoffs, the Leafs had a pretty major flop of a series against the Panthers in Round 2, losing to them in five games. While the Leafs celebrated a major high moment by simply winning their first playoff series since 2004, they still fell short of many expectations and now find themselves in quite a situation. While snapping such an extensive drought can certainly be looked at as a form of success in itself, when you consider how deep and star studded their roster was, it’s difficult to really consider saying this team achieved what they set out to this year. Sure, finally getting over that first round hump is a step in the right direction but with how good this team was, they had their sights set on a bigger and as a result, fell short this year.
As I predicted in my playoff previews, the Leafs were able to get past Tampa but unlike my prediction, they wouldn’t see the third round. While there’s certainly enough conversation to be had about how they could’ve and probably should’ve been better, it’s again worth mentioning that Florida is just a really good team that many folks wrote off given where they found themselves in the standings going into the postseason. The Leafs dropped the first two games of the series, both of which in relatively close fashion. The real “low moment” for the Leafs in this postseason came in their overtime loss in Florida for Game 3. Not only did this put them at risk of getting swept in the sunshine state, but this put them in a really deep hole that is almost unheard of digging yourself out of. Sure enough, they held off elimination and lived to fight another day. They would return home for Game 5 but as I just mentioned, a 3-0 deficit is pretty rare to overcome. The Panthers found the back of the net in overtime yet again to send the Leafs home and move on to Carolina for the Eastern Conference Finals.
When it came down to it, the Panthers were the better team from a systematic stand point. They kept the Leafs scoring chances to a minimum, wore down their top players and found ways to win. One of the biggest issues for the Leafs was very similar to what the Rangers went through in the sense that their top players weren't getting it done offensively. Auston Matthews, who had ended the playoffs with five goals, did not score once against Florida. Same can be said for Captain John Tavares who had four goals in Round 1, came up completely empty in Round 2. In addition to that, the Leafs to a much lesser extent than Winnipeg, had little to no push back. Early on in the series, Sam Bennett went after Matthews Knies, a rookie mind you, in a very questionable manner, hitting his head into the ice. What did the Leafs do in response? Nothing. And lost the series.
There’s certainly a fine line regarding this situation. I’m not saying you have to go out and have fight night like the Rangers did after the Tom Wilson debacle, but at a certain point, when things hit the fan, especially when it’s a rookie getting taken out like that, you have to do something. Even if just one noticeably physical shift or a weak fight, by not doing anything you’re essentially saying you can beat us up, do whatever you want, we’re not going to stand up for it. Again, this alone isn’t why the Leafs lost but it certainly didn’t help their cause in putting up a fight in Florida.
The biggest question for the Leafs this off-season isn’t will there be change because it’s pretty clear there is going to be. The question is, what exactly will change? After a rather disappointing showing that followed the triumph of getting past the first round, you have to imagine that changes are going to be made and the attention immediately goes to “the core four”. Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and John Tavares, the “we can and we will” team leaders could very well find themselves as a big question mark moving forward. If change is going to come, you have to imagine one of these four will fall casualty. The question then becomes which of the four do you move on from? Do you trade someone that makes the most sense to trade, the one who’s most expendable or will one of them come forth and ask to be moved?
The primary focus will be around Auston Matthews who is entering the last year of his contract. Matthews is arguably a top-five player in the league. He’s the face of the franchise, an elite superstar, easily one of the top centers in the league. Unfortunately for the Leafs, Matthews holds all the power in those negotiations as he will become an unrestricted free agent at the end of his current deal which expires after next season. With that in mind, Toronto will likely get to work on a long term extension as soon as they possibly can. If you’re Toronto, you have to do whatever it takes to keep him around. He’s a borderline generational talent and the exact type of player you never want to let go of. However, if Matthews isn’t sold on staying in Toronto, he could easily make the most money a free agent has ever made on the open market. If that’s the case, and Matthews is up front about his plans, Toronto could look to trade him if he’s open to it and get a massive haul in return to help build towards the new era.
Of the four, Matthews is the least likely option for the Leafs to move on from. Mitch Marner likely being a close second. Marner is signed through the next couple seasons and was far and away their best player this season. William Nylander on the other hand, is also on an expiring contract and has shown inconsistencies at times throughout his career. If the Leafs are considering a change, they could look at him as the most expendable. Although if you want to look at the situation objectively, purely based on contract term and overall cap hit, John Tavares could make the most sense. The Leafs’ Captain will turn 33 this fall and is set to make an AAV of $11 million for the next three seasons. While having a one-two punch of Matthews-Tavares is a pretty dream scenario, you have to consider all your options. Given his age and the fact that as Captain, he’s sort of at the forefront for this seemingly failed era, moving him might be the sort of change they should make. Only problem there is Tavares is on a full no movement clause for the remainder of his contract.
Outside of the core four, the Leafs have a ton of players on expiring contracts, all set to be unrestricted free agents. Michael Bunting, Ryan O’Reilly, Alex Kerfoot, David Kampf, Noel Acciari, Justin Holl, Wayne Simmonds, Zach Acton-Reese, Erik Gustafsson, and Luke Schenn. Given the need to prepare to give Auston Matthews his money, I don’t see a situation where many of those names are back next season. There’s already rumors floating around that O’Reilly is set to be a big name free agent this off-season. Alex Kerfoot has been mentioned in trade rumors for multiple seasons and after Michael Bunting’s postseason, I wouldn’t count on the Leafs looking to extend him even if he’s willing to take a discount. Luke Schenn, David Kampf, and Noel Acciari are a couple names I’m sure the Leafs wouldn’t mind keeping but will likely get pay increases in free agency. Given the overall direction of this team that has now been affected by an earlier than hoped playoff elimination, it’s likely the Leafs start next season with as clean a slate as they can and re-signing depth, primarily bottom-six role players, isn't necessarily the right approach.
Now the one issue with letting all their pending UFA’s walk, they’ll essentially be tasked with rebuilding the team’s entire bottom six. On the back end, they’ll be fine with Rielly, Giordano, Brodie, McCabe, Timmons and Liljegren but again, will have significantly less depth then they had going into the playoffs. Another thing to keep in mind is this isn’t going to be a particularly deep free agent class so filling those holes on the third and fourth lines won’t be a walk in the park. The Leafs do have some guys that have sniffed the NHL in the past and could make the jump to the fourth line (Alex Steeves, Pontus Holmberg, Bobby McMann, etc) but again, given the expectations, you have to ask whether or not that will suffice. If they move one of the core four, there’s a fair chance you’ll get a number of roster players who can fill in some of those roles and of course there is still some young talent in the system to consider as well. You also can’t rule out the possibility of trading anyone under contract past next season.
A lot of these decisions certainly depend on whether or not Kyle Dubas will return as the team’s General Manager. In a rather emotional press conference, Dubas did mention that he only intends to be a GM in this league if it’s with the Leafs so they shouldn’t have to worry about him taking a GM job anywhere else. However, it isn’t totally clear that Dubas will return to the helm in Toronto and if not him, who will? Aside from potential trades, free agent signings and other roster decisions, who will be the one making these decisions is undoubtedly a huge question in itself. From an outside opinion, I find Kyle Dubas to be too good of a GM to not be working in the NHL and it would be a mistake for Toronto to decide to move on from him but again, there’s always bigger factors at play. It’ll be a tough decision for both parties involved and it likely won’t stop there. Shelden Keefe and the rest of the coaching staff's future could very well be up in the air and if changes get to be drastic, they could move on from Brendan Shanahan as well.
Needless to say, the Leafs are going to have as fascinating an off-season as anyone. I don’t see them immediately rushing to a decision regarding their GM but would expect it to come with enough time to prepare for the draft. Coaching staff changes could come much sooner and you have to think one of the core four aren’t wearing a Maple Leaf come October. Expect young players like Matthew Knies and potentially Nick Robertson to get serious looks in more significant roles next season and perhaps Justin Woll, who was fantastic in net for the Leafs in the last two games, will be seeing more starts at the NHL level.
Chris Feldman
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