I have to say, the Dallas Stars put up so much more of a fight than I was expecting. Prior to the start of the playoffs, I predicted Dallas getting swept by the Flames and instead, they forced Calgary to go to game seven. Not only did they go to game seven, they took the Flames to overtime before Johnny Gaudereau put an end to their season with his overtime series winning goal. After dropping game one in a 1-0 loss, the Stars went on to win back to back games before Calgary evened it up at two wins a piece in game four. Dallas dropped game five but forced the Stars to seven with a big game six 4-2 win. In any situation, losing a game seven in overtime is never an easy pill to swallow. However for the Stars, it’s all the more bitter as their window for winning could be on the brink of closing,
So that being said, what comes next for Dallas? Remember, this is a team that made it to the Stanley Cup Finals just a few seasons ago.. In theory, they are still in their contention window. The question is how much of it closes if John Klinberg, Alexander Radulov and the rest of their UFA’s walk and hit the open market? All signs point to the Stars looking to continue competing as they have already taken steps in that direction by extending Joe Pavelski for another year. General Manager Jim Nill will have his work cut out for him as Jason Robertson and Denis Gurianov will be RFA’s in need of new contracts. The Stars have a pretty interesting cap situation in the sense that they have about $7,000,0000 wrapped up in two goalies they did not finish the season with (give or take). Ben Bishop who still had another year on his contract has dealt with a significant enough injury to put an early end to his career, leaving him on LTIR for the remaining year of his deal.
The Stars have already begun dealing with this to better their cap situation, dealing Ben Bishop’s contract to the Sabres, clearing them of his close to $5,000,000 cap hit in exchange for “future considerations.” Which to the best of my knowledge, pretty much means nothing. The move helps the Stars out a bit but regardless, they still have Anton Khudobin on the books for another year around $3,000,000. Khudobin’s contract is currently buried in the minors as Jake Oettinger rose to the occasion of being the team's number one goaltender in the playoffs, with Scott Wedgewood backing him up and Braden Holtby on the IR. In theory, the Stars can move forward with Oettinger as their starter and keep Khudobin as their backup as both Holtby and Wedgewood are set to hit free agency. The question will be whether or not they look to either improve in the backup goaltender position or how they will look to strengthen their depth in that area.
All things considered, the Stars will have roughly around $20,000,000 in cap space. Resigning Robertson, Oettinger and Gurianov is going to cost a pretty penny so it may be safe to assume that John Klingberg and Alexander Radulov have played their final games in Dallas. I could see Radulov taking a cheaper deal to stick around if the team is interested and he believes this group still has what it takes to win, but it’s hard to see a situation in which Klingberg doesn’t take a better offer for more money and term somewhere else. You have to think Robertson’s next deal can be anywhere between five and seven million, probably on the higher side. Denis Gurianov can be anywhere in the three to six window and Jake Oettinger could see something in the 4-5 range, maybe even higher. For the sake of projections, let’s say the three of them tally up $15,000,000, that only leaves Dallas with about $5,000,000 of cap space left.
Assuming their RFA’s get under contract and they let everyone else walk, without any additions they line up along these lines going into next season:
Robertson - Hintz - Pavelski
Gurianov - Benn - Seguin
Kviranta - Faksa - Glendening
Peterson - Delleandrea - Studenic
Suter - Heiskenen
Lindell - Harley
Hanley - Hakanpaa
That’s not bad by any means but it’s pretty obvious they could benefit from some middle six forward depth as well as a reliable addition on the back end. John Klingberg has huge skates that won’t be easy to fill, but if he walks they’re going to have to find some sort of solution there. There is always a chance that Nill crunches the numbers well enough to keep Klingberg around long term but he also has to consider what he might have to pay Roope Hintz next season. Regardless, you have to think as long as Dallas still has Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin, they’re going to look to compete. If that is the mindset Dallas is going to have, they must find a way to do so responsibly by realizing that their core is now becoming Hintz, Robertson, Heiskenen and Oettinger. These are the guys you want to build around while still trying to compete in the meantime.
If Dallas can get some contributions from their younger talent and get guys like Ty Delleandrea, Thomas Harley and perhaps Antonio Stranges to take those next steps, they could find themselves in a good place, even if they aren’t able to do much in free agency. At the end of the day, it’s going to come down to how much they are still able to get from their vets in Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, Joe Pavelski and Ryan Suter. Pavelski and Suter are guys who desperately want and deserve a Cup and if they believe they can accomplish that in Dallas, then perhaps the team is in a good place. Jake Oettinger will undoubtedly be a key piece to how far the Stars can go as he is going to have high expectations moving forward as the team’s number one goalie. All in all, I think Dallas could have what it takes to hold on to a playoff spot and that’s all you need to enter the fight for the greatest trophy in sports.
Chris Feldman
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