The one series I thought was a lock to go to seven games, results in my second Elimination Evaluation of the postseason with the Minnesota Wild. The Wild fell short in game six, losing to the Blues a score of 5-1. Not really much of a close game to wrap up the series as the Wild just couldn’t find a way to beat Binnington while keeping St. Louis off the scoreboard. Despite losing game one in rather decisive fashion, the Wild showed some life, outsourcing the Blues 11-2 in games two and three. However, the Blues found a way to turn it back around the rest of the way through and special teams played a significant role in that. In the final stretch of the series, both teams had ample power play opportunities but the Blues were able to convert on them more constantly than Minnesota. The Blues are a good team and the one area Minnesota had to exploit them in in order to win the series was goaltending. Binnington stepped up when he needed to as the Wild were only able to find the back of the net five times in the final three games.
So the question is, where does this leave Minnesota moving forward? Well for starters, they don’t have much room for anything as far as cap space goes which is a major problem. The buyouts of Zach Parise and Ryan Suter alone carry a cap hit of almost $13,000,000 and when you factor in everyone who is still under contract going into next season, (which is mostly everyone), that only leaves Bill Guerin with about $4,000,000 for next season. That most certainly is not going to be enough to re-sign Kevin Fiala or to fill any of the team's other holes through free agency. Therefore, the Wild are going to have to rely on their in house talent to keep this team moving forward.
Marc-Andre Fleury will be an unrestricted free agent and is very unlikely to return to Minnesota unless he wants a huge pay cut. They don’t have many other “big name” UFA’s aside from Nick Bjugstad and Nicholas Deslauries, and with the cap situation they're in, it’s safe to assume none of them will be back next season. Their biggest concern moving forward aside from what they are going to do about Kevin Fiala is what is their plan regarding goaltending? With Fleury likely moving on and Cam Talbot entering the last year of his contract, the Wild may be forced to accelerate their long term plan which is former first round draft pick, Jesper Wallstedt. Wallstedt was drafted 20th overall by the Wild in 2021 and just signed his entry level contract yesterday. It typically takes more than a year for a goalie to develop before being NHL ready, but the Wild may not have any other choice. They do have Hunter Jones in the organization who could get a look as Talbot’s backup next season but regardless, this team’s going to need another goalie, ideally a veteran to pair either with Hunter Jones or Jesper Wallstedt. If they go with Jones with Talbot for next season they could move forward with Wallstedt and Jones but even then, they’ll likely want a veteran option in the mix,
Right now, without signing any free agents or having Fiala under contract, this is what the Wild’s opening night lineup is looking like.
Kaprizov - Hartman - Zuccarello
Greenway - Erikkson-Ek - Boldy
Foligno - Jost - Gaudreau
Dewar - Shaw - Duhaime
Brodin - Dumba
Goglioski - Spurgeon
Merril - Kulikov
Talbot - Jones
Obviously their top line isn’t anything to worry about as Kaprizov and Zuccarello have built strong Chemistry with each other and Ryan Hartman compliments them perfectly, but after that it gets a little dicey. Collectively, who I have in their middle-six forward group is solid but how confident can Minnesota be in some of those guys taking on bigger roles? Freddie Gaudreau had a career year this season but is that something he can sustain moving forward? Jordan Greenway is another guy they will rely on to take the next steps and a bigger role next season. Defensively, they have a good group of guys who have been with the team through their whole careers as well as other well-seasoned NHL vets.
Minnesota is going to want to target anyone who is capable of contributing at the NHL level on the cheapest of contracts, ideally two-way deals in this summer’s free agency to give the team depth and potential options in their bottom-six forwards. Unless this team makes a move, they have no money to really do anything with. Fiala has already taken a bridge deal and settled in arbitration this season so it’s hard to see a situation in which he settles for anything less than he feels he’s worth to play in Minnesota. If they want to keep him, they’re going to have to make a move in order to shed cap space but if they can’t get that done, they’ll have to move him entirely. In moving Fiala, they’re likely going to have to settle for picks, prospects or fringe players on team friendly contracts as a realistic return as any team they negotiate with will have the upper hand considering they will have to do the work to get him under contract.
What makes all of this all the more challenging is there aren’t even many players the Wild could consider moving. They have about $24,000,000 of cap space dedicated to five defensemen who all either have no trade clauses or modified ones. Assistant Captain Matt Dumba will be entering the last year of his deal and has a modified no movement clause, but he’s not really the type of player you want to move just for the sake of saving money. If there’s any way to get him signed to a long term deal that’s likely something that's going to be in Minnesota’s best interest but again, their cap situation just isn’t working in their favor. They could test the market on Marcus Foligno who carries just over a $3,000,000 cap hit but again, that’s another assistant captain and contributing member of your team, you can’t shell guys like him and Dumba out just because you’re in a pinch with the budget.
Kevin Fiala is without a doubt one of the top players on this team but unfortunately, Minnesota is going to have to wear their mistake and move him or risk holding out with him until they can get all the numbers squared away. I don’t see Fiala waiting it out very long and I know hockey fans often get their tails wagging about offer sheets that rarely work out, but this might be a situation where it makes too much sense. A team like Arizona or Seattle with cap space and ample draft picks have no reason not to consider going for an offer sheet on Fiala as he is a guy that can not only help them now, but for many years to come. Nevertheless, It’s going to be a very interesting off season for Bill Guerin and the Minnesota Wild. You have to wonder if they will be able to continue as playoff contenders with this group as they are pretty locked in with them for the foreseeable future.
Chris Feldman
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