You can’t make this stuff up, man. For yet another year, the Toronto Maple Leafs have been eliminated from the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, falling to the Tampa Bay Lightning in a 2-1 game seven loss. The Leafs had not one, but two chances to put the series away and finally get over that first round hump but nevertheless, the Lightning who are coming off back to back Stanley Cups had it in them to come back and steal the series. It’s only being further amplified in how quickly Tampa took care of Florida in round two but Tampa is certainly still a threat and are very well making a push to three-peat.
Toronto got off to a fantastic start, taking game one from Tampa in decisive fashion by the score of 5-0. They were getting contributions from their top players, their vets and depth role guys like David Kampf who had a huge goal in the second period to give the Leafs an insurance lead. Tampa would even up the series in game two but once again, Toronto found a way get on top of them early in game three, establishing a three goal lead by the second period. David Kampf again with that insurance goal after Morgan Rielly and fellow depth forward Colin Blackwell got them up two. The Leafs would finalize that one by a score of 5-2 before falling hard again to Tamp in a 7-3 game four loss. A huge win at home in game five gave the Leafs the chance to end the series in six but Tampa forced game seven where they would inevitably snag the series from the Leafs on their home ice.
So the question has to be asked, where do the Leafs go moving forward? It’s a tough call because on the one hand, this is now at the very least, the second year the Leafs were supposed to get past the first round and haven’t. On the other hand, they lost to the defending back to back champs who still can very well do it all over again. For that reason alone, I think the Leafs will try to get back there next season with a fairly similar group in attempts to finally get over that first round hump. They have already gotten to work on next season, signing veteran defender Mark Giordano to an extremely team friendly extension. The Leafs were allegedly prepared to offer him two years at one million dollars per year but Giordano actually talked THEM down in attempts to help the Leafs cap situation. An absolutely classy move by one of the classiest to play the game in recent years.
The Leafs will without a doubt need all the help they can get on the cap front considering as of right now, they’re looking to only have about $7,000,000 of cap space to play with. That’s a huge problem considering the Leafs have several RFA’s who will look for raises in Rasmus Sandin, Timothy Liljegren, Pierre Engvall and Ondrej Kase and will definitely need to improve in order to continue competing next season. Their RFA’s could cost the team $7,000,000 and that’s without even considering the UFA’s they’ll be interested in bringing back. Among their UFA’s, they are at risk of letting Ilya Mikeyev, Jason Spezza, Colin Blackwell and Ilya Lyubushkin all walk to free agency this summer. Given the cap situation, it’s hard to assume they’ll really be able to do much aside from extending Colin Blackwell and Jason Spezza to two-way deals if they’re interested in sticking around on a discount. Spezza’s future especially will be up in the air as the now 38 year-old is in the final stages of his career. He could decide to retire or continue chasing a cup either with the Leafs or a different team.
Among Toronto’s UFA’s, the biggest name they will have to worry about is their starting goaltender, Jack Campbell. Campbell has solidified himself as the Leafs starter, so much so that the Leafs trusted him with taking over the starting responsibilities for Freddie Anderson who the Leafs had to move on from for, you guessed it! Cap reasons. This leaves Toronto at a crossroads, as Campbell will absolutely require a raise from his current $1,650,000 contract and with the position he’s in at his current age, he’s going to want to sign as long as he can for as much as he can. Secure that bag, Soupy. You already have Giordano taking pay cuts to stick around but unfortunately for Kyle Dubas, not everyone grew up a Leafs fan.
Petr Mrazek, the Leaf’s current backup goaltender isn’t doing their cap situation any favors as he is on the books for another two seasons at just shy of $4,000,000. While Mrazek may still have some gas left in the tank, at this point in time you would much rather have Jack Campbell in your net most nights. However, if the money isn’t there, the Leafs may be forced to ride with Petr Mrazek and/or hope that one or two of their younger goalies is ready to make the full time leap to the NHL. Erik Kallgren helped them out a bit towards the end of this season, but he isn’t a sure bet going into next season as he has never made it as a full time NHLer just yet. They do have Ian Scott and Joseph Woll in the minors who could have potential but regardless, that’s a pretty big gamble to go into next season with when this team has no choice but to do better than they did this past season to avoid a complete overhaul.
So it’s obvious the Leafs need to find some cap space in order to keep this group competitive so the question has to be asked; How can the Leafs clear up cap space? Well…. They kinda can’t. At least not with ease. They could try to move Petr Mrazek but again, at this point he pretty much has little to no value, especially at $3,800,000. Oh, and he has a modified no trade clause. Jake Muzzin is another hefty contract at the end of his prime who the Leafs could be interested in moving to give more opportunities to Sandin and Liljegren but again, finding a team interested in him isn't going to be easy. Ah, yes, he ALSO has a no trade clause. Pretty much all of the Leafs defenders and anyone on the roster that makes money has some form of a no movement clause, making it incredibly challenging to engage in or have any leverage in trade negotiations. The only players who make over $3,000,000 and don’t have some form of a no movement clause are Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and Alex Kerfoot.
Kerfoot will be in the last year of his $3,500,000 deal next season so they could look to move him, perhaps in a similar deal that Colorado made with Tyson Jost, but at the end of the day that’s only going to save you a couple bucks. Is it really worth it when Kerfoot is still a solid, contributing piece to this team? This is where the trade idea train gets interesting. Could Kyle Dubos and the Leafs look to break up “the core four?” This is now season what, four? Five? Of this group not getting to where they need to be… Time is running out. Could the Leafs make a blockbuster trade involving either Marner or Nylander?
You have to think it’s pretty unlikely and the Giordano extension is the first big indicator that the Leafs are still going to be going for it. That being said, I don’t see any of the core four going anywhere, meaning the Leafs are either going to have to bank on Campbell not breaking their bank, or hope they find some more bargain deals like Michael Bunting has turned out to be for them.
With no additions and all the UFA’s moving on, the Leafs are without a strong goaltender and are extremely top heavy, in need of bottom six depth. Defensively, they’re running the same group back which is fine but that would leave Sandin and Liljegren still splitting opportunities which may not necessarily be ideal as far as benefiting this club in the long term. With that in mind, we’re looking at:
Bunting - Matthews - Nylander
Robertson - Tavares - Marner
Kerfoot - Kampf - Simmonds
Clifford - Abruzzese - ?
Rielly - Holl
Brodie - Giordano
Sandin - Muzzin
Safe to say, cheap, affordable depth signings are going to be key for Kyle Dubas and they will absolutely count on Nick Robertson as well as those two young defenders to take the next steps next year, to become consistent contributing pieces to their everyday line up. If they can extend Spezza like they did Giordano and even keep Blackwell around it’s likely going to be useful, especially with their fourth line essentially being empty looking at it right now. It’s going to take a lot of financial maneuvering to stay under the cap ceiling while putting the best possible group on the ice but it’s definitely a fun challenge. This team’s core will have to stay focused, stay determined and regardless of who they come across next season, they have to persevere.
Chris Feldman
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